While exploring the possibilities of miscalculations leading to a war in South Asia, a US intelligence report has warned that India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants.
The assessment is included in a Global Trends report produced every four years by the US government’s National Intelligence Council, released in Washington. The report focuses on both immediate and distant futures and is designed to help policymakers anticipate the forces likely to shape the world in the next five to 20 years.
“India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian government judges to be significant,” the report warns. “The ability of some militant outfits to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to retaliate against Islamabad after such an attack, and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself are likely to persist and may increase in the next five years,” the report adds. “Miscalculation by both governments can prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict to levels each side judges it can manage.”
The report warns policymakers in Washington that a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years. The US policy in Afghanistan and its impact on the neighbouring countries is top on a list of key uncertainties in South Asia that are underlined in the report. “US actions in Afghanistan during the next year will have significant consequences across the region, particularly in Pakistan and India,” the report states. “This would be especially true if a security vacuum emerges in Afghanistan that results in a civil war between the Taliban and its Afghan opponents, expanded freedom of manoeuvre for regional terrorist networks, or criminals and refugees flowing out of the country,” it adds.
The report predicts that such an outcome would exacerbate political tensions and conflict in western parts of Pakistan and sharpen the India-Pakistan rivalry by strengthening longstanding judgments about covert warfare in Islamabad and New Delhi. “An abrupt US exit probably would also amplify concerns that the United States will lose interest in South Asia generally,” the document says.
The report puts the prospects for increased regional trade or energy cooperation in South Asia during the next five years as low, “due in part to the high probability of ongoing hostility between India and Pakistan”.
The US intelligence community warns that water insecurity in the region is also an increasing risk. The assessment includes forecasts by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025, given a combination of poor water conservation practices, rising temperatures, and decreased rainfall.
The report notes that previous extreme weather events, such as the 1970 cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, contributed to state failure in then-East Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh the next year. It warns that future events could also prompt a regional crisis with enormous humanitarian, political, and security implications to which external powers probably would try to respond.
The report points out that security threats have “undergirded popular support” for nationalist leaders, and these threats are likely to continue or worsen in some cases. For example, “military tensions between India and Pakistan are at their most contentious in many years, strengthening leaders in both capitals.”
The US intelligence community notes that information technology is fuelling authoritarian tendencies by making it easier for South Asian governments to influence their populations. It points out that in 2019, India “led the world in Internet shutdowns by a wide margin” – with several months-long crackdowns to suppress protests, including in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan has deployed Safe Cities technology, raising public fears of increased surveillance.
US intelligence analysts argue that despite some signs of sustained democratisation, domestic politics in much of the region are likely to continue on the polarising course of the past few years, and this trend may sharpen in some countries. The report warns that polarising political rule of some leaders in the region will probably increase the inequities or abuses faced by minorities and political opponents of the ruling parties.
